The document, a book titled ‘The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920’ was published by writer and English economist, John Maynard Keynes. The title of the book itself briefly indicates the topic that Keynes had decided to write about in great detail and provides the reader with a general understanding of the topic which Keynes covers in his book. Keynes covers a broad range of points in this book, with the text briefly outlining points such as an explanation about his views and opinions on Treaty of Versailles and the effects and consequences that this would have on the economy.
In addition to this, Keynes shares his views about reparations, forgiveness of war debts and his concerns about the conditions that were set at the Versailles conference for economic recovery and an insight into his views on what could ruin Europe’s economy. Keynes had quickly established a reputation as ‘one of the Treasury’s most able men’. This led to Keynes being assigned the role of an advisor to the British Government in the Versailles Conference. However, at the Paris Peace Conference, Keynes had been discouraged by the harsh terms that had been imposed on Germany in the Treaty of Versailles.
Shortly after this, Keynes wrote The Economic Consequences of the Peace (1919), in which he outlined his ‘controversial and strong views about the terms and conditions in the treaty. In addition to this Keynes also shared his ‘pessimistic’ views about the treaty and wrote about the concerns and reservations about the impact that the treaty would have . In addition to this, he also felt very strongly about many European countries’ economies that would be impacted greatly as a result of the treaty. This immediately led to his decision to resign several days before the treaty was signed.
Prior to the Peace Conference, Keynes argued that the policy for reparations shouldn’t have been introduced at all due to the fact that this would ruin Europe’s economy leading to the ‘the rapid depression of the standard of life of the European populations to a point which will mean actual starvation for some’. It can be seen in this passage that Keynes’ main concern was that the Versailles Conference should have focused on setting the conditions on ‘provisions for the economic rehabilitation of Europe’.
However, Keynes’ felt that the Council of Four’ or ‘had ‘paid no attention to these issues, being preoccupied with others’. Whilst reading this part of the text, historians can identify that the issues the politicians Wilson, Clemenceau, Orlando and George had been focusing on where issues such as ‘borders and national security’, allowing the reader to gain a basic understanding about this topic and be able to use this to explore and develop further into the details and explanations behind the text.
Although it is important to consider that this book contains the opinions that Keynes had published about his views on the economic consequences of the treaty, to some extent it can be suggested that this is a useful source for historians who are able to gain some knowledge and understanding about the policies in the treaty of Versailles, the way in which these policies were drafted and an overview about the possible problems with the Treaty of Versailles.
The first sentence of the text, ‘This chapter must be one of pessimism’, immediately demonstrates the views that Keynes possesses in regards to the topic that he will be referring to in this specific chapter, emphasising his views in relation to the economic consequences of the Peace conference. As briefly mentioned in this document, it is suggested throughout the text that Keynes was not in favour of such a high figure for reparations as he believed that this decision would affect the economy of countries all over Europe.
However, he also displayed his ideas and views about the possible effects that this decision would have on the ‘economic future of the States’ adding that the Council of Four’ had failed to recognise they were ‘handling’ the ‘destiny’ of. As Keynes writes, that the President, Wilson, did ‘nothing’. can also be seen as a reference to the fact that Wilson had refused the proposal that Keynes had presented on the forgiveness of war debts and did not let Keynes present his views on the credit program.
In addition to the previous points about Keynes’ views on the severe impact that European countries’ economies suffering from, he writes in detail about the direct impact that these decisions would have on the European population. Here, we are able to see an economist’s real analysis and thoughts into the possible issues that Keynes was extremely concerned about. Keynes writes about how the majority of the population had ‘secured… a livelihood before the war through an ‘immensely complicated organization, of which the foundations were supported by coal, iron, transport… and an unbroken supply of imported food and raw materials”.
From this passage in the text, it can be identified that Keynes had extensively researched about the possible effects on the economy as well as displaying his concerns about the effect that this would have on a significant proportion of European people. He believed that the treaty would result in a ‘destruction of this organization’ leading to a ‘part of this population’ being ‘deprived of its means of livelihood’. This detail allows the reader to gain a deeper understanding about the views that Keynes had hoped would have been taken into consideration during the Paris Peace Conference.
It also allows the reader to understand more about the economic concerns and possible effects of the treaty as well as demonstrating how this document can be seen as a historical source. The document is useful for a historian in many ways such as gaining some level of understanding into the key issues and concerns surrounding the Treaty of Versailles as well as an outline into the criticism and differences of opinions during this period of time, at the Conference in 1919.
Overall, it must be taken into consideration that whilst this book’s publication may have led to much criticism by others who disagreed with his viewpoints, today there are some historians and economists who have widely acclaimed his piece of work recognising it as a well-constructed piece of writing. Although in some ways, this source is limited due to the fact that this is a written piece of work containing the opinions that Keynes had shared about the Paris Peace Conference, there are some many useful points that make this document a good historical source that allows the reader to general understanding about the whole topic in general.
As well as this Keynes’ work can be recognised as a useful historical source as it allows historians to gain specific insight into some of the prevalent issues of the time in regards to the treaty of Versailles. It also helps in providing a slightly better understanding surrounding how the treaty was drafted up and begins to explore the different reasons why the treaty of Versailles may have been recognised as being a ‘failure’. In addition to this, this passage is helpful in the sense that it is able to allow the reader to understand the feelings of the writer through the tone and language that he uses in this piece of his work.
This allows the reader to understand more about the context in which this book had been published and perhaps suggests the general purpose of this book, in not only targeting the politicians who he felt that made an incorrect judgement but also towards the general American public. Research shows that the Economic Consequences of the Peace ‘played a critical role in turning American public opinion against the Treaty of Versailles’.
